Before You Spend a Dime— Why Return on Investment Matters
While Return on Investment tells you whether past investments paid off, forecasting it ahead of time can help you choose the right opportunities and avoid costly mistakes. Restaurants have such slim profit margins that ROI isn’t optional. It’s survival. This is a lesson one restaurant owner learned the hard way.
Meet David.
David is a typical small restaurant owner. He is passionate about food and creating the best possible experience for his customers. But, like many independent restaurant owners, when it comes to big decisions, David trusted his gut. And it nearly sank his business.
In late winter, David decided to invest $25,000 to expand with an outdoor seating area. He believed it would bring in more customers during the spring months, which would boost revenue and set him apart from the competition.
But David never sat down to do the math. He didn’t ask any questions. How many new customers would this expansion really bring in? How long would it take to recoup the investment? Do current customers even want this change? Passion is essential in business. But numbers keep the doors open.
At first, the buzz was exciting. Photos of the upgrade went up on social media and looked amazing. The marketing campaign brought in a small burst of interest, but few repeat customers. But, by the middle of summer, the numbers told a different story.
- Total revenue increase from outdoor dining: only $7,000
- Unexpected costs: $3,000 in permits, $2,000 in maintenance
- Weather delays: Lost 4 peak weekends due to rain
- Net profit? Basically zero
Worse, the investment delayed upgrades to his kitchen, which caused longer wait times and affected customer satisfaction. David had sunk $25K into something that felt right—but didn’t pay off.
How ROI-Based Decision Making Could Have Helped
If David had used a simple ROI based decision-making process, things could have turned out very differently. Here are what those steps would have looked like.
1. Understand ROI Basics
Projected net profit is calculated by subtracting the projected costs from the expected revenue over a specific period of time. For example, if you want your project to produce a return on investment over three years, you would project your net profit over three years. Then, to find the percentage of ROI, divide the projected net profit over time by the estimated cost of the project (investment), then multiply the result by 100.
ROI = ((net profit – investment) / investment) x 100
2. Identify Decision Area
For restaurants there are many areas that could be analyzed for return on investment. Things to consider would be new equipment, menu changes, or investments in technology, such as an updated POS System.
David should have asked: “Will outdoor seating bring in more profit than other things I could invest in?” This would have given him more insight into the best area to focus his capital.
3. Estimate All Costs
As we all know, most investments end up costing more than we originally expected. Think about legal fees, market research and insurance. Instead of assuming $25,000 was the final price, if David had done some more research he would have realized he needed to include costs for permits and licensing and extra maintenance costs.
4. Forecast the Returns
How can you forecast realistic return on investment? Use historical data or industry benchmarks when possible. Also, look at average foot traffic and sales from previous years. David didn’t factor in the extra time for table turnover in an outdoor space. Research shows that people may stay longer for a meal when seated outside. After considering all the factors David might have decided to invest his money in an endeavor that had the potential of a much better ROI.
5. Calculate ROI
After completing all of the research, now is the time to calculate the projected return on investment. After plugging your forecasted numbers into the ROI formula, it is important to ask questions about the results. How long will it take to break even? Is the ROI positive, and over what period of time? Is there a better place to invest that capital? For David, he would have come up with a negative ROI in year one. This would have given him the opportunity to do more research or refocus his goals.
6. Compare Alternatives
If you’re choosing between options (e.g., a new fryer vs. a marketing campaign), calculate forecasted ROI for each and compare. Then you can choose the one with the best ROI and strategic fit. (Use our free ROI comparison calculator to compare options.)
What if, instead of outdoor seating, David spent $8,000 on a new kitchen line to speed up service? If that option showed an ROI by end of year 4, it would be a better option.
Here is an example:
| Investment Idea | Estimated Cost | Expected Revenue Year 1 | Historical Net Income % | Projected Net Profit (Year 1) | Potential ROI (Year 1) | Time to Breakeven (Years) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outdoor Patio | $30,000 | $14,000 | 8% | $1,120 | -96.27% | 26.79 |
| New Kitchen Line | $8,000 | $31,200 | 8% | $2,496 | -68.80% | 3.21 |
7. Track Results
The work doesn’t end once the decision is made on where to invest. After implementation, spend the time to measure real returns versus the projected ones. Keeping detailed records can help with future decisions. Also, if the ROI falls short adjust your strategy midstream as needed.
David didn’t measure the actual impact of the patio until it was too late. With proper tracking, he could’ve adapted mid-season—maybe offering events or promotions to fill outdoor seats more often.
8. Refine the Process
ROI-based decision making improves over time as you continue to collect more accurate data. This allows you to continue to learn from past outcomes and fine tune future forecasting. David now keeps a spreadsheet with every investment, the projected ROI and actual performance. This makes his future decisions smarter -and less stressful.
The Takeaway
David isn’t alone. Many restaurant owners make high-stakes decisions based on passion and guesswork. But businesses don’t run on vibes—they run on numbers.
By using a clear, ROI-based decision-making process, you can maximize profits, reduce financial risk, and make smarter investment decisions. Don’t let guesswork guide your business - make every dollar count.
Grab our free ROI Calculator for Restaurants and start making data-backed decisions today.
Are you looking for a return that really pays off? Invest in a conversation with KAC Consulting, Inc., schedule a meeting by click here!











